Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
